Sargassum outlook update, by USF Optical Oceanography Lab – December 2019 update

The maps above show Sargassum abundance, with warm colors representing high abundance. December 2019 continued the situation of November 2019. Very little Sargassum was found in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida Straits, Caribbean Sea (CS), and Central West Atlantic (CWA). In all regions combined, the Sargassum amount is reduced to ~0.4 million metric tons. This amount is similar to that in December 2016 (0.6M tons) but much lower than in December 2015 (1.1M tons), December 2017 (3.2M tons), or December 2018 (4.7M tons). Most of the Sargassum mats are currently aggregated near the east tropical Atlantic (not shown in the maps below).

Looking ahead, because the Sargassum amounts in all regions above (except the east tropical Atlantic) have continued to decrease and because there is currently minimal Sargassum amount in the CWA, we predict that all regions will likely experience minimal or no beaching events in January to February 2020.

However, because there is still some Sargassum in the east tropical Atlantic, if these Sargassum are transported to the west following the equatorial current, the Sargassum amount in the CWA mayincrease in spring 2020. We will keep a close eye on how Sargassum in the east tropical Atlantic may evolve in the next two months.