Marine heatwave forecasts – May 28th 2024 – Reposted from Mercator Ocean International

Mercator Ocean International (MOi) oceanographers examine marine heatwaves across the global ocean. They analyse a variety of datasets from observations (satellite sea surface temperature maps) to numerical model analyses (assimilating satellite and in situ observations) and derive marine heatwave forecasts for a 7 day period.[1]

Global Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

North Atlantic – MOi forecasts that the marine heatwave in the North Atlantic continues to decrease, with a complete vanishing offshore the Moroccan coast. In the central part, the marine heatwave decreases in intensity, and is mostly of moderate category. In the western part, it reinforces with a development of moderate and strong categories. 

Tropical North Atlantic – In the Tropical North Atlantic the marine heatwave remains stable with mainly strong categories to locally severe. The marine heat wave in the Gulf of Mexico is stable.

South Tropical Atlantic – In the South Tropical Atlantic and at the equator, the marine heatwave remains stable, with categories ranging from moderate to strong. 

Southern Ocean

The marine heat wave in the Southern Ocean, off the South African coast (between 30°W and 30°E) decrease in extend, categories are mostly strong and locally extreme. 

Pacific Ocean 

Tropical Pacific – In the Tropical Pacific the marine heat wave remains stable with mostly moderate and strong categories.

North Pacific – In the North Pacific, the marine heatwave located around 45°N and 170°W increases in intensity with strong categories and even locally severe.

South-East Asian Seas – The marine heatwave intensity in the South China Sea decreases, but there still remains moderate and strong categories. 

South Pacific, to the east of New-Zealand – The marine heatwave remains stable.  

Indian Ocean

Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal – In the Arabian Sea, the marine heatwave decreases, with most areas in moderate categories. In the Bay of Bengal, the marine heatwave disappears.

South of the Indian Ocean, between 30°S and 60°S – The moderate to severe marine heatwave remains stable. 

Europe Zone

North Sea

For the 28st of May, Mercator Ocean International (MOi) forecasts that the marine heatwave around the British Isles decreases in its western part. The North Sea marine heat waves continue to intensify with mainly severe and extreme categories.  

Mediterranean Sea

MOi forecasts that the marine heatwave disappears. 

Consult our Daily Global Physical Bulletin for a 9-day forecast ici.

For more information visit : https://www.mercator-ocean.eu/en/category/mhw-bulletin/